2023 Buyers Are Breaking

A specific cohort of American homeowners is entering a distress window right now — and most note buyers haven't found them yet.

Homeowners who purchased in 2023 locked in at rates meaningfully above where the market had been for the prior two years. They entered with thin equity cushions, in markets where appreciation has since stalled or reversed. Three years in, the usual escape routes — refinancing into a lower rate, pulling equity via HELOC, or selling at a gain — are largely unavailable. What's left is a forced-hold strategy that is quietly expiring.

The national foreclosure filing volume is already accelerating at a measurable clip, and the states most exposed are concentrated in the Sun Belt and mid-Atlantic corridors — exactly where 2023 origination volume was heaviest. Delinquency rates in several key states have posted steep year-over-year increases in the first half of 2026. ARM adjustments and property tax resets are compounding payment pressure for borrowers who were already stretched at origination.

The window for off-market acquisition — before these borrowers appear on formal foreclosure lists and become fully competitive — is roughly 12 to 18 months. After that, every other note buyer in the country sees the same record at the same time.

🔓 Unlock the Full Playbook

The signal is confirmed — now the question is where to find these borrowers, how to approach them, and how to verify which markets carry the most concentrated risk before you deploy capital.

• Cape Coral's 27% underwater rate and the verified hot-spot state rankings: The paid issue names the specific metros and states with confirmed 2023–2024 vintage distress data, sourced from ICE and ATTOM's mid-year 2026 report.
• Three sourcing channels — ranked by access cost and conversion rate: Title data pulls, servicer outreach framing, and short-sale attorney networks — with the exact execution sequence for each.
• The verification framework before you commit capital: A step-by-step checklist using ATTOM, MBA, ICE, FHFA, and FRED — the real public tools, with what to check in each and how to confirm whether delinquency trends in your target market are accelerating or plateauing.